Mississippi State and Florida State Meet in Pensacola Exhibition

Mississippi State plays Florida State on Saturday, October 10, at the Pensacola Bay Center. Tip is 5 p.m. CT, 6 p.m. ET. It is an exhibition, the Southern Tip-Off, and the first meeting since 2015. Luke Loucks is in his second season at Florida State. Chris Jans is still in Starkville. Neither roster is the one that closed last season.

Florida State finished 56th in KenPom offense, inside the top 75. Mississippi State finished outside the top 100 on both offense and defense. Saturday is not a measuring stick for March. It is a first look at whether a top-75 offense can still create after a roster overhaul, and whether a team that was bad on both ends can get one clean possession.

Josh Hubbard, the Mississippi State returner

Hubbard is the one piece that did not leave. He is the only returning player who made a start last season, a three-time All-SEC guard, and 195 points from the program scoring record. King Grace, who averaged 12.1 minutes as a freshman off the bench, is the only other returner who played. Everyone else is new.

That is the Saturday watch for the Bulldogs. If Hubbard is still the one finishing possessions, the portal class is depth. If RJ Johnson is initiating and Hubbard is spotting up, Jans has the second scorer he spent the offseason chasing. Outside the top 100 on both ends is the number they have to leave. One returning starter cannot do it alone.

Mississippi State’s adds

RJ Johnson comes from Kennesaw State. He averaged 14.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, shot 45.3% from the field and 42.3% from three, made All-Conference USA first team, and won Conference USA Tournament MVP. He is 6-4. He is the one new Bulldog who does not need a role invented for him.

ND Okafor comes from Washington State at 11 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks, and he was honorable-mention All-WCC. He is the frontcourt piece replacing Jamarion Davis-Fleming. Tajuan Simpkins comes from Seton Hall at 9.7 points and 37% from three. Kendyl Sanders comes from Utah at 5.2 points and 3.1 rebounds, shooting 40.3% from three off the bench. The freshman class is 247Sports’ No. 25, with four-stars Tristan Reed, Willie Burnett III, and Jalyn Collingwood. None of them are the story unless Johnson cannot shoot.

The expectation in Starkville is a Hubbard team that can finally space the floor. Johnson’s 42.3% from three is the cleanest path out of the bottom 100. A portal class that cannot get Hubbard a second creator puts them back in the same place on both ends.

Anthony Robinson II, the Florida State add

Robinson is the point guard, and he is home. The Tallahassee native played 96 games with 50 starts at Missouri. Last season he averaged 8.9 points, 3.0 assists, and a team-high 1.6 steals, seventh in the SEC. As a sophomore he made the SEC All-Defensive team, the only underclassman on it, and averaged 9.0 points, 3.5 assists, and 2.0 steals. He had 10 assists at Kentucky in Missouri’s first win at Rupp Arena, 20 against VMI, and a career-high 29 against California.

Loucks called him a guard who can lead on day one. He is not a 20-point scorer. He is a defender who can run a side. Florida State already had a 56th-ranked offense. Robinson is the piece that is supposed to keep that rank from falling while the rest of the roster is new.

Sebastian Rancik is the other name Loucks is taking to ACC Tipoff. The 6-11 junior comes from Colorado.

What Saturday is for

Florida State’s expectation is a second-year jump from a top-75 offense, built on a point guard who already guarded in the SEC. The next exhibitions are Auburn on October 14 in Birmingham and LSU at home on October 24. Pensacola is the first time the new group has to play somebody else. Holding a top-75 offense with a new point guard would already be a win.Mississippi State’s expectation is narrower. Hubbard stays the first option. Johnson has to be the second. Okafor has to finish a roll. If Hubbard spends the night hunting his own shot and Johnson cannot make a three, the offense and the defense that both finished outside the top 100 are still those units.