Five Exhibition Games Worth Watching This Week

Most of this week’s exhibitions are buy games. These five are not. Each one has two Division I rosters, and each one answers a question the KenPom sheet cannot.

USC vs. North Carolina — Friday, Oct. 9, 7 p.m. ET, Greensboro

This is the game. ACC Network, neutral floor, two power-conference rosters. North Carolina finished 32nd in KenPom offense last season and then turned the backcourt over. Derek Dixon and Luka Bogavac are gone. Neoklis Avdalas, Terrence Brown, and Matt Able are the replacements. USC came out of the portal with one of the highest-rated incoming classes in the country. The score will not count. Who brings the ball up, and who gets the second shot, will.

Ohio State vs. Cincinnati — Wednesday, Oct. 7, 3 p.m. ET, Mason, Ohio

Big Ten against Big 12, before Dayton and Xavier play in the same building. Ohio State was a top-20 KenPom offense last season. Cincinnati was the 10th KenPom ranked defense last season. Cincinnati spent the portal cycle adding pieces, including Myles Colvin from Wake Forest, and still has to prove the offense can travel. This is the first real answer. If Cincinnati cannot generate a clean possession against Ohio State, the Big 12 schedule is going to be long.

Villanova at Rutgers — Sunday, Oct. 11, 1 p.m. ET

Villanova was a top-40 KenPom offense and added Jake Fiegen and Elijah Crawford to a roster that already had creators. Rutgers was outside the top 150 on offense. Tariq Francis, at 17 points a game, is the one returning piece that can keep the Scarlet Knights in it. If Rutgers cannot score in Piscataway against a Big East offense, the Big Ten season is going to look the same.

Richmond at Virginia — Friday, Oct. 9, 7 p.m. ET

Same night as North Carolina-USC, and the better game if you care about defense. Virginia finished 17th in KenPom defense. Richmond added Derin Saran from UC Irvine, 11.5 points and 5.3 rebounds, after he left a Big West defense that was 26th nationally. This is a stops check for Virginia and a first look at whether Saran can score against an ACC-level defense. The final margin is noise. The missed shots are the story.

Mississippi State vs. Florida State — Saturday, Oct. 10, 6 p.m. ET, Pensacola

Two Power Four teams, neutral site. Mississippi State finished outside the top 100 in KenPom offense. Florida State rebuilt through the portal, including Anthony Robinson II from Missouri. Neither team is being asked to look like a top-25 offense. Both are being asked to create a clean shot against a real frontcourt. If one of them cannot, October is not the problem. November is.

Bonus Game: Denver at Utah State on Saturday is the next game down. It matters for the Pac-12. It is not one of these five.